Table des matières
Introduction
Plan
Former version of the method
Logistique regression
Weakness of this product
Weakness of this product
Changes to the method
Changes in areas
Seasonal cycle
Changes in areas
Changes in interannual predictors
New interannual predictors
New interannual predictors
NINO3.4 and TC occurrence
TNI and TC occurrence
DMI and TC occurrence
Predictor selection
Predictors selection
Predictors selection
Predictors selection
Predictors selection
Coefficients of the model
Coefficients of the model
Coefficients of the model
Coefficients of the model
Example of forecasts
Example of forecasts
Score
Cross-validated Brier skill score
Cross-validated Brier skill score
Cross-validated Brier skill score
Cross-validated Brier skill score
Cross-validated Brier skill score
For operational products
For operational products
Reliability diagram
Reliability diagram
Reliability diagram
Reliability diagram
Economic Value
Economic Value
Economic Value
Economic Value
Economic Value
Conclusion
Weekly TC forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere
Anne Leroy (Météo France)
Matthew Wheeler (CAWCR/BOM)
John McBride (CAWCR/BOM)
funded by the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative
May 2009