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Former version of the method

  • Use of logistic regression to forecast both TC genesis and occurrence probability

  • Predictors :

    • Daily climatological probability of genesis/occurrence
    • Interannual predictors : SST1/SST2 to take into account the ENSO state and possibility the interannual variability in the Indian Ocean
    • Intraseasonnal predictors : RMM1/RMM2 to take into account the MJO state
  • Described in Leroy and Wheeler 2008

  • Operational forecast from 2006/07 to 2008/2009 on